Germany has concluded its early parliamentary elections, with the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, securing victory as expected, though not overwhelmingly. The 21st Bundestag will consist of five parties: the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Left Party. However, both the far-right and far-left will remain outside the ruling coalition. The most likely outcome is a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD, a governing model that proved effective under Angela Merkel. Initial negotiations have already begun, raising questions about the future government’s approach to Ukraine and Russia.
CDU: “Do Not Confuse the Aggressor with the Victim!”
Following the failed negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the U.S. administration led by Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, Friedrich Merz reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to Ukraine. He took to X (formerly Twitter) to declare, “We stand with Ukraine in good times and bad. In this terrible war, one must never confuse the aggressor with the victim!” This statement underscores Merz’s unwavering support for Ukraine and rejection of any pro-Russian shift in German policy.
Merz has consistently advocated a tough stance on Russia. As early as 2014, while many German politicians hesitated, he openly supported economic sanctions against Russia and its removal from the G8. His leadership of Atlantik-Brücke, Germany’s most influential transatlantic organization, further highlights his commitment to Western alignment. During the 2024 election campaign, he even proposed an ultimatum to Moscow: if Russia continued bombing Ukrainian residential areas, Germany would supply Taurus missiles to Kyiv. Though his rhetoric softened after the election, he remains firmly pro-Ukraine and critical of Russia.
Other CDU leaders share Merz’s position. Bundestag member Thorsten Frei dismissed any suggestion of lifting sanctions, emphasizing Russia’s ongoing violations of international law. Felor Badenberg, a former deputy head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, advocates for tougher measures against Russian espionage. Meanwhile, CDU foreign policy spokesperson Roderich Kiesewetter openly declares that “Russia must lose the war,” contrasting the often-used diplomatic phrase that “Ukraine must not lose.”
SPD: “Ukraine Belongs to the European Family”
The SPD has historically faced criticism for being too conciliatory toward Russia, especially due to former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s ties with Vladimir Putin. However, under Olaf Scholz, the party has shown strong support for Ukraine. Despite internal debates, the SPD has authorized billions in military and humanitarian aid, providing tanks, air defense systems, and financial assistance exceeding €43.5 billion since February 2022.
Scholz has firmly condemned Russian aggression, expressing solidarity with Ukraine and warning against Trump’s approach. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, a key SPD figure and potential future chancellor candidate, has called Russia “the greatest security threat in Europe.” His controversial remark that “Germany must be ready for war by 2029” underscores his belief in strengthening Germany’s defense capabilities against potential Russian aggression. SPD co-chair Lars Klingbeil has also acknowledged past mistakes in Germany’s Russia policy, emphasizing that “the peace we knew before February 24 no longer exists.”
Policy Outlook: A United Front Against Russia
Despite differences on domestic issues like migration and taxation, CDU and SPD share a common foreign policy vision: strong support for Ukraine, condemnation of Russia’s actions, and a commitment to European security. Their coalition would control 328 out of 630 Bundestag seats, comfortably exceeding the 316-seat majority threshold. Additional backing from the Greens, who hold 85 seats, further strengthens this stance.
The Left Party, having distanced itself from its previous non-interventionist stance, has also labeled Russia as an aggressor. While still opposing arms shipments, they may support broader security measures. In contrast, pro-Russian voices from the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance lack the numbers to influence policy.
What This Means for Ukraine
Germany will continue its sanctions against Russia and maintain its support for Ukraine. However, while Berlin can independently impose sanctions, significantly increasing military aid will require balancing financial constraints, public sentiment, and coordination with EU allies. Merz’s government will likely push for stronger European security initiatives and greater transatlantic cooperation, ensuring continued resistance against Russian aggression.
In summary, Germany’s new government will not seek rapprochement with Moscow, will uphold sanctions, and will sustain military and economic aid to Ukraine. The CDU-SPD coalition, with additional support from the Greens and potentially the Left, will ensure a stable and consistent foreign policy. As geopolitical tensions persist, Germany remains committed to defending Ukraine and strengthening European security.
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